This is a guest post by Nathan Paxton. As social scientists, at least as regards what we can empirically assess, we tend to make statements of probability rather than fact. So rather than say that ...

In this paper, we show that the conditional frequentist method of testing a precise hypothesis can be made virtually equivalent to Bayesian testing. The conditioning strategy proposed by Berger, Brown ...

SCIENCE, being a human activity, is not immune to fashion. For example, one of the first mathematicians to study the subject of probability theory was an English clergyman called Thomas Bayes, who was ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...